[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 December 20 issued 2330 UT on 31 Dec 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Jan 1 10:30:08 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 DECEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 01 JANUARY - 03 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Dec:  81/22


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jan             02 Jan             03 Jan
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    81/22              80/20              79/19

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 31 December. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible disc, 2794(S17W62) 
and 2795(S18W36). Region 2794 remained relatively stale while 
region 2795 showed further decay. Solar activity is expected 
to be very low over the next three UT days, 01-03 January, with 
a slight chance of an isolated C-class flare. H-Aplha images 
observed a small filament eruption in the SW quadrant east of 
region 2795 around 31/0246 UT, no clear CME signature was observed 
in STEREO and SOHO images. No other Earth directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph images. On UT day 31 December, 
the solar wind speed decreased, currently around 380 Km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) was weak, under 4 nT and the north-south component 
of the IMF (Bz) range was +/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to be near its nominal levels over the next two UT days, 01-02 
January. Slight enhancement in the solar wind speed may be observed 
on 03 January due to HSS from a small northern hemisphere positive 
polarity coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 31 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11010101
      Cocos Island         1   10010100
      Darwin               1   11010101
      Townsville           2   22011001
      Learmonth            2   12011101
      Alice Springs        1   11010001
      Gingin               2   11011101
      Canberra             1   11010101
      Hobart               2   11110101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010000
      Casey               16   35432222
      Mawson              13   33122244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2212 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jan     5    Quiet
02 Jan     5    Quiet
03 Jan    12    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 31 December. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to remain at quiet levels on 01-02 January before increasing 
to unsettled levels with a slight chance of an isolated active 
period on 03 January should earth connect with HSS from the positive 
polarity coronal hole in the northern hemisphere.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jan      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions over the next 
three UT days, 01-03 January.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Dec    14

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      -6
Dec      5
Jan      8

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jan    10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near predicted monthly 
values to slightly enhanced on UT day 31 December. Strong sporadic 
Es were observed at several Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
over the next three UT days, 01-03 January. Sporadic E occurrences 
are expected to continue.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Dec
Speed: 498 km/sec  Density:    8.0 p/cc  Temp:   243000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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