[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 30 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Dec 31 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 31 DECEMBER - 02 JANUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Dec: 102/50
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Dec 01 Jan 02 Jan
Activity Low Low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 102/50 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 December. Solar
activity is expected to be mostly very low to low over the next
three UT days, 31 December to 02 January, with a slight chance
of an isolated low level M class flare event from solar region
AR2916 (S16W35), currently the only solar region of significance,
though this region may now be in decline. There were no significant
Earth directed CMEs observed. On 30 December, the solar wind
speed increased from 383 to 516km/sec as the Earth entered a
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Peak total IMF was 21 nT
and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +18/-10nT. Currently the
solar wind speed is around 470km/sec and the IMF is near neutral.
The solar wind is expected to remain enhanced enhanced 31 December
to 01 January due to coronal hole effects, then decline.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 30 Dec : A K
Australian Region 11 43233111
Cocos Island 6 32222110
Darwin 9 42223111
Townsville 13 53223122
Learmonth 11 42233212
Alice Springs 10 43223111
Gingin 10 42232212
Canberra 10 43232121
Hobart 8 33232111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 32152110
Casey 32 66533222
Mawson 13 43233232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1201 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Dec 13 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated active periods
possible
01 Jan 13 Quiet to Unsettled with isolated active periods
possible
02 Jan 9 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 30 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to active. Quiet to major storm
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled
conditions with isolated active periods are expected on 31 December
to 01 January due to coronal hole effects, then becoming quiet
to unsettled on 02 January.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Jan Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 31 December
to 02 January with mildly degraded conditions at high latitudes.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Dec 58
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Dec 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 44 was issued on 29
December and is current for 30 Dec to 1 Jan. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 30 December were near predicted monthly values
to 30% enhanced. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to about 15% enhanced over 31 December to 02 January.
Chance for isolated minor fadeouts over 31 December to 01 January.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B3.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Dec
Speed: 390 km/sec Density: 6.8 p/cc Temp: 30200 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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