[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 December 21 issued 2330 UT on 28 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Dec 29 10:30:59 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 DECEMBER - 31 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.8 0402UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.5 1612UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Dec: 121/73
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Dec 30 Dec 31 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 122/75 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 28 December with
several C-class flares and two M-class flares at 28/0401UT and
28/1611UT from region 2918. A weak signature was observed in
LASCO C2 (difference) imagery around 28/0612UT, suggest that
the first M_class flare was associated with a CME (difficult
to model). No other significant Earth-directed CMEs were observed
over the last 24 hours. There are currently five numbered regions
on the visible disk, however flaring has been primarily from
region 2918. Region 2916, the largest showed some decay while
a newly numbered region, 2921 has developed, and is now a Beta
magnetic class. All other regions are small and magnetically
simple. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over
the next 3 UT days, 29-31 December. On UT day 28 December, the
solar wind speed remained enhanced, varied between 420-540 Km/s.
The peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) range was +4/-7nT, with several weak southward excursions.
Enhanced solar wind speed conditions are expected to continue
for 29-31 December due to coronal holes effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Dec: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Dec : A K
Australian Region 4 12211201
Cocos Island 2 12111100
Darwin 3 12211100
Townsville 5 22221211
Learmonth 4 12212201
Alice Springs 4 12211201
Gingin 4 12212201
Canberra 5 22311111
Hobart 6 22312210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Dec :
Macquarie Island 10 23432210
Casey 18 55332211
Mawson 21 45523322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 1122 4211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Dec 15 Quiet to active
30 Dec 12 Quiet to active
31 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 28 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet with some isolated unsettled periods.
Major storm conditions were observed in the Antarctic region.
Quiet to unsettled conditions with possible active periods are
expected for 29-31 December due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Dec Normal Normal Normal
30 Dec Normal Normal Normal
31 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 29-31
December with possible shortwave fadeouts.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Dec 48
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
30 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
31 Dec 45 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 December
were near predicted monthly values to 35% enhanced. MUFs are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values with possible
daylight fadeouts on UT days 29-31 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Dec
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 48200 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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