[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 22 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 23 10:31:05 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 DECEMBER - 25 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Dec: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.3 0706UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Dec: 140/94
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
23 Dec 24 Dec 25 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 135/89 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate for UT day 22 December,
with one M-class flare and multiple C-class flares. There are
currently 14 numbered regions on the visible solar disk. The
flaring during the last 24 hours were from regions AR2907 and
AR2908. These regions are located in the southwest quadrant,
so possible CMEs from these flaring are expected to be geoeffective.
The strongest M1.3 flare from AR2908 appears to have produced
a CME, however, it was difficult to see possible evidence of
this CME in the coronagraph imagery. The event is being investigated
further. The CME from 21 December may cause a glancing blow at
the Earth on early UT day 25 December and glancing blow from
the 20 December CME is expected to arrive late today (23 December).
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate over the next
3 days, with a chance of isolated M-class flares. The solar wind
speed during the last 24 hours remained moderately elevated level
and moslty steady near 575 km/s. The peak total IMF (Bt) was
mostly steady near 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was
+3/-3 nT. The outlook for most of UT day 23 December is for the
solar wind speed to decline gradually, though remain elevated.
>From late UT day 23 December, the solar wind may enhance again
due to the anticipated arrival of the 20 December CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 22 Dec : A K
Australian Region 7 22213222
Cocos Island 5 12212121
Darwin 5 22212112
Townsville 8 22213223
Learmonth 9 22223223
Alice Springs 6 12213212
Gingin 8 22213223
Canberra 7 12223122
Hobart 9 13323222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Dec :
Macquarie Island 11 23334211
Casey 30 45643333
Mawson 25 44434353
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 4111 2221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
23 Dec 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
25 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
for the Australian region on UT day 22 December. Unsettled to
isolated storm periods for Antarctic regions. These disturbed
conditions were in response to the moderately elevated solar
wind speed associated with the coronal hole effect. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to active over the next three
days. The glancing blow from the 20 and 21 December CMEs are
anticipated to arrive on late UT day 23 December and early UT
day 25 December, respectively. Active and may be minor storms
are possible if the IMF Bz stays southward for prolonged periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
23 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
25 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 23-25
December with shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
22 Dec 77
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
23 Dec 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
24 Dec 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Dec 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 22 December ranged
from near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced by 15-40%
over the Australia regions. MUFs are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced levels to due above
average levels of solar ionising flux. Shortwave fadeouts possible
on daylight HF circuits.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 21 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B7.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Dec
Speed: 577 km/sec Density: 12.8 p/cc Temp: 517000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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