[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 December 21 issued 2345 UT on 19 Dec 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Dec 20 10:45:57 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 DECEMBER - 22 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Dec: 115/66
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Dec 21 Dec 22 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 115/66 114/65
COMMENT: Solar activity has been Low for 19Dec with the only
notable activity being a C3.7 flare at 2112UT from region 2907.
No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed in available
imagery over the last 24 hours and analysis of 18Dec long duration
C-flare showed it to be heading south-east with no earth directed
component. There are currently 6 numbered regions on the visible
solar disk with no significant increase in their sunspot size
or magnetic complexity over the last 24 hours. The north-south
component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between +3nT and -4 nT from
00UT-12UT. From 12UT onwards Bt began to increase in magnitude
and Bz has been southward between 15UT-21UT reaching -18nT. The
solar wind speed was at ambient background levels for the first
half of the UT day, beginning at ~350km/s at 00UT. A weak shock
was observed in the solar wind at 1210UT and the speed began
to increase steadily to be 493km/s at the time of this report.
This increase is likely due to the effects of a small negative
polarity southern hemisphere located coronal hole high speed
solar wind stream. Solar wind speed is expected to remain slightly
elevated over the next 2-3 days due to the influence of larger
negative polarity equatorial located coronal hole that crossed
the central meridian yesterday. Solar activity is expected to
be Low to Moderate over the next 3 days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Dec: Quiet to Minor
Storm
Estimated Indices 19 Dec : A K
Australian Region 15 11013445
Cocos Island 12 01112444
Darwin 15 11013445
Townsville 15 11013445
Learmonth 21 11113555
Alice Springs 15 10013445
Gingin 14 10012445
Canberra 14 01012445
Hobart 15 11112445
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Dec :
Macquarie Island 13 00011454
Casey 18 33332335
Mawson 18 22113355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 5 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 22 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0001 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Dec 12 Unsettled
21 Dec 18 Active
22 Dec 14 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions for the Australian region Quiet
for for first half of the UT day 19Dec until an increase in solar
wind parameters saw Active to Minor Storm conditions. Geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be Unsettled for 20Dec with an increase
in activity to Active conditions possible for 21Dec-22Dec due
to further coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
21 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
22 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF conditions observed for 19Dec across
all latitudes. HF conditions expected to range from near predicted
monthly values to depressed over the next 3 days due to increased
geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Dec 51
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Dec 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
21 Dec 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
22 Dec 20 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region for 19Dec ranged from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced by 15-30%
over all regions. MUFs slightly depressed after local dawn for
southern AUS/NZ regions due to increased geomagnetic activity
over the local night. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values for Equatorial and Northern AUS regions with possible
depressions of 10%-30% for Southern AUS/NZ regions and disturbed
conditions for Antarctic regions for the next 3 due to expected
increase in geomagnetic activity over this period. Chance of
short-wave fadeouts 20Dec-22Dec.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Dec
Speed: 355 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 47700 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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