[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 17 Dec 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Dec 18 10:31:20 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 DECEMBER - 20 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Dec:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0051UT  possible   lower  West Pacific

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Dec: 121/73


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Dec             19 Dec             20 Dec
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   121/73             121/73             122/75

COMMENT: On UT day 17 December, solar activity was moderate due 
to an isolated M1 flare from solar region AR2911 (N20E59). There 
are currently seven numbered regions on the visible solar disk, 
with solar regions AR2911(N20E59),AR2907(S21E08) and AR2909(S21E48) 
exhibiting potential for low level M class flares (ASWAS R1). 
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on UT days 18-20 
December. No significant Earth directed CMEs were observed in 
the last 24 hours. On UT day 17 December, the solar wind speed 
continued to show a decreasing trend from 464 km/s down to 353km/s. 
The peak of the total IMF (Bt) was 4 nT and the north-south IMF 
(Bz) component range was +2/-2 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to continue declining to near background levels on UT days 18-20 
December. An isolated equatorial coronal hole is visible in US 
GOES satellite imagery just east of the solar central meridian.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21101101
      Cocos Island         0   11000000
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           3   21101111
      Learmonth            3   31001101
      Alice Springs        2   21100101
      Gingin               2   20001101
      Canberra             1   11100101
      Hobart               3   21111101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     0   11000000
      Casey                9   43311111
      Mawson               7   33211212

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart              16   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1222 1011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Dec     7    Quiet
19 Dec     5    Quiet
20 Dec     9    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 17 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet for the next three days.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Dec      Normal         Normal         Fair-normal    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected during 18-20 
December with shortwave fadeouts possible on daylight HF circuits.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Dec    48

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Dec    40    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Dec    40    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values
20 Dec    40    10 to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 17 December 
were mostly near to 15-30% above predicted monthly values. Strong 
sporadic E was observed at some stations. A very brief minor 
fadeout was observed in Niue ionograms near 01UT. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values with possible daylight 
fadeouts on UT days 18-20 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Dec
Speed: 524 km/sec  Density:    8.3 p/cc  Temp:   206000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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