[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 December 21 issued 2340 UT on 07 Dec 2021

Wed Dec 8 10:40:23 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 DECEMBER - 10 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Dec:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Dec:  79/19

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Dec             09 Dec             10 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    80/20              80/20              80/20

COMMENT: On UT day 7 December, solar activity was very low. AR2904 
(S28E20) is the only spotted region, showing signs of decay. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 8-10 
December. On UT day 7 December, the solar wind speed peaked at 
525 km/s and later declined to 420-450 km/s, the peak total IMF 
(Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-3 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be moderately elevated over 
8-10 December due to coronal hole effects and possible CME disturbance 
on 10 December.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Dec: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Dec : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12111111
      Cocos Island         2   11100111
      Darwin               3   12111111
      Townsville           4   22111111
      Learmonth            4   22111112
      Alice Springs        3   12111101
      Gingin               3   21110111
      Canberra             3   11111111
      Hobart               3   12211101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Dec :
      Macquarie Island     1   11001000
      Casey               13   44331222
      Mawson              11   43111233

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Dec : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Dec : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Dec :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2022 1202     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
09 Dec     8    Quiet to Unsettled
10 Dec    12    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: On UT day 7 December, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled during 8-9 December with possible active 
periods on 10-December with expected arrival of the filament 
CME first observed on 5 December.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Dec      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
09 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
10 Dec      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected during 
8-10 December.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
07 Dec     8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 20% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Nov      3
Dec      33
Jan      36

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Dec     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
09 Dec     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
10 Dec     0    15 to 20% below predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 37 was issued on 6 December 
and is current for 7-9 Dec. MUFs in the Australian region on 
UT day 7 December were generally near predicted monthly values 
to mildly depressed, due to low levels of ionising solar flux. 
Similar conditions are expected during 8-10 December.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Dec
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Dec
Speed: 485 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:   209000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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