[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 04 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Dec 5 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 DECEMBER - 07 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Dec: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Dec: 88/32
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Dec 06 Dec 07 Dec
Activity Very low to low Very low Very low
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 04 December, solar activity was low. Region
2898 produced several C-class flares, the largest being a C4.2
that peaked at 04/0515 UT. This region is passing behind the
limb now and can produce C-class flares with a small possibility
of isolated M-class flare on UT day 05 December. At 04/22:55UT,
there are four numbered sunspot groups visible from the Earth
side. Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on UT
days 05 to 07 December with the possibility of C-class flares
on these days and small possibility of isolated M-class activity
on UT day 05 December. Several merging CMEs were observed from
the west side, but none of them seems to be geoeffective. On
UT day 04 December, the solar wind speed range was 410 km/s to
530 km/s, the peak total IMF (Bt) was 9 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +6/-7 nT. The solar wind parameters are expected
to be moderately disturbed from 05 to 06 December due to a coronal
hole effects and then gradually return to normal values through
UT day 07 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Dec: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 04 Dec : A K
Australian Region 5 32201111
Cocos Island 3 21111120
Darwin 4 31201111
Townsville 6 32202212
Learmonth 3 21201111
Alice Springs 5 32202111
Gingin - --------
Canberra 4 22201112
Hobart 5 32201111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Dec :
Macquarie Island 5 2220----
Casey 23 65422122
Mawson 14 44222233
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin NA
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Dec : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1002 3321
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
06 Dec 15 Quiet to Active
07 Dec 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: On UT day 04 December, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to unsettled. Quiet to active with
two storm level periods were observed in the Antarctic region.
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be initially quiet to
active for the next two UT days, 05 to 06 December due to coronal
hole effects and then return to quiet to unsettled levels on
07 December.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
06 Dec Normal Normal-fair Fair
07 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions
are expected 04-05 December. Mostly normal HF conditions, with
the possibility of minor MUF depressions, may be expected on
07 December.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Dec 18
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Dec 10 Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
06 Dec 10 Near Depressed 30%/near predicted monthly values
07 Dec 15 Near Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 04 December
were generally near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed.
Near predicted monthly values to moderate depressions are expected
04-05 December in the Australian region. Mostly normal HF conditions,
with the possibility of minor MUF depressions, may be expected
in the region on 07 December.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Dec
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A9.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Dec
Speed: 448 km/sec Density: 8.2 p/cc Temp: 185000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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