[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 December 21 issued 2331 UT on 01 Dec 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Dec 2 10:31:04 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 DECEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 DECEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 DECEMBER - 04 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Dec: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Dec: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Dec 03 Dec 04 Dec
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 86/29 84/26 80/20
COMMENT: On UT day 01 December, solar activity was very low.
There are currently five numbered regions on the visible solar
disc, the largest being region 2900 (S26W73 at 01/21:35UT). Solar
activity is expected to be very low to low on UT days 02 to 04
December. A filament erupted from the southern hemisphere between
about 0730-1030 UT on 29 November, producing a CME which is expected
to give a glancing blow to the Earth in the latter half of 02
December. On UT day 01 December, the solar wind speed varied
between 450 km/s and 570 km/s, the total IMB (Bt) stayed stable
between 5 nT and 7 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) varied in
the range +7/-6 nT. This coronal hole effect, along with the
effect of one more coronal hole and a possible glancing blow
from a CME (expected late on 02 December) may keep the solar
wind stream strengthened during the next 3 UT days, 02 to 04
December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Dec: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Dec : A K
Australian Region 12 33224223
Cocos Island 8 22113322
Darwin 9 32223222
Townsville 12 33224223
Learmonth 13 33224323
Alice Springs 12 33224223
Gingin 16 43224333
Canberra 12 33224223
Hobart 12 33324222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Dec :
Macquarie Island 30 34545533
Casey 23 55433323
Mawson 37 44334646
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Dec :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 15 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 10 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Dec : A
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7 0010 0015
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Dec 18 Unsettled to active, isolated minor storm periods
possible
03 Dec 15 Unsettled to Active
04 Dec 10 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 40 was issued on 30 November
and is current for 1-2 Dec. On UT day 01 December, geomagnetic
conditions in the Australian region were quiet to active and
in the Antarctic regions quiet to minor storm. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be quiet to active with the possibility of isolated
minor storm periods on UT day 02 December, and unsettled to active
on 03 and 04 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Dec Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with minor to
moderate degradations are expected on UT day 02 December. Minor
to mild degradations in HF conditions may be expected on UT days
03 and 04 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Dec 23
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Nov 3
Dec 33
Jan 36
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Dec 12 Depressed 30%%/near predicted monthly values
03 Dec 15 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
04 Dec 15 Depressed 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 01 December
were near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
as well as mild enhancements. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to mildly depressed on UT days 02 to 04 December.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Nov
Speed: 350 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 24600 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list