[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 August 21 issued 2331 UT on 25 Aug 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 26 09:31:01 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 26 AUGUST - 28 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Aug: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Aug: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Aug 27 Aug 28 Aug
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 84/26 84/26 85/27
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 August. A C1.1 flare
was observed from the region 2860 at 25/0124UT. There are currently
two numbered regions on the visible disk: AR2859 (N19E21/23:05UT/25August,
Hax-Alpha) and AR 2860 (S28E30/23:05UT/25 August, Dai beta).
The previously reported CME, from the eruption of a large filament
in the northeast quadrant during late hours on 22 August, seems
like a narrow miss, but a weak interaction cannot be completely
ruled out. If it does hit the earth, the interaction is expected
to happen during the first half of UT day 27 August. None of
the other CMEs that were previously reported, seem to have geoeffective
components. On UT day 25 August, the solar wind speed mostly
stayed between 360 km/s and 400 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied
between 3 and 9 nT and the IMF north-south component (Bz) stayed
southwards up to -8 nT until 0500 UT and then varied in the range
+3/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay at slightly
to moderately enhanced levels during UT days 26 August and 27
August due to the effect of a northern polar coronal hole. There
is small chance of the solar wind stream also getting slight
strength on UT day 27 August from the CME of 22/23 August. Solar
wind is expected to return to the background levels on 28 August.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Aug : A K
Australian Region 4 22211210
Cocos Island 4 22201210
Darwin 6 32211211
Townsville 7 32222211
Learmonth 7 32212320
Alice Springs 4 22211210
Gingin 5 22211310
Canberra 5 22221210
Hobart 5 22222210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Aug :
Macquarie Island 13 13444210
Casey 8 33221311
Mawson 24 26622221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 0011 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Aug 18 Quiet to active
27 Aug 15 Quiet to active
28 Aug 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were predominantly quiet in the
Australian region and predominantly quiet with some active and
minor storm periods in the Antarctic region on UT day 25 August.
Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet to active
on UT days 26 and 27 August and quiet to unsettled on 28 August.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Aug Normal Normal-fair Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: MUFs on UT days 26 to 27 August are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor to
mild MUF depressions due to the expected increase in geomagnetic
activity levels. Mostly normal MUFs may be expected on 28 August.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Aug 22
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Aug 16 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
27 Aug 16 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
28 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 25 August were
near predicted monthly values, with some mild MUF depressions
in the Northern Australian. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT days 26 and 27 August are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values with the possibility of minor to mild MUF depressions
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity levels.
Mostly normal MUFs may expected on 28 August.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Aug
Speed: 306 km/sec Density: 14.9 p/cc Temp: 27500 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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