[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 August 21 issued 2334 UT on 04 Aug 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 5 09:34:21 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 AUGUST 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 05 AUGUST - 07 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Aug: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Aug: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Aug 06 Aug 07 Aug
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 August. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR2850
located at S32W54. Solar activity is expected to be very low
for 05-07 August, with a chance of isolated C-class flares. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images during
the last 24 hours. On UT day 04 August, the solar wind speed
was near its background levels; range was 320-390 km/s. The IMF
Bt component was mostly steady near 4 nT. The IMF Bz range was
+1/-3 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its
background levels today, UT day 05 August. However, mild enhancement
in solar wind speed is possible today due to small patchy equatorial
coronal holes reaching a geoeffective location on the solar disk.
>From UT day 06 August, the solar wind speed is expected to increase
in response to the arrival of high-speed streams (HSS) from a
Northern Polar coronal hole with extensions into the low latitude
regions.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Aug: Quiet
Estimated Indices 04 Aug : A K
Australian Region 1 11110100
Cocos Island 2 12110100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 12111201
Learmonth 3 22111100
Alice Springs 1 11110100
Gingin 1 12000100
Canberra 1 10100100
Hobart 1 11110100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Aug :
Macquarie Island 1 01020000
Casey 5 33211100
Mawson 11 53221102
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 14 4233 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Aug 7 Quiet
06 Aug 15 Unsettled to Active
07 Aug 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
at quiet levels on UT day 04 August. The Antarctic region observed
quiet to unsettled conditions on this day. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet for most part of today,
UT day 05 August. On UT day 06 August, geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be unsettled to active with a chance of minor
storms. The forecasted disturbed conditions are due to possible
arrival of the corotating interaction region and subsequent high
speed streams associated with the Northern Polar coronal hole
with extensions into low latitude regions. Unsettled conditions
are expected to continue on UT day 07 Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for today, UT day 05 August. Some degraded propagation conditions
are possible on UT day 06 August due to forecasted disturbed
conditions.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Aug 20
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 17
Aug 25
Sep 28
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 20 Near predicted monthly values
07 Aug 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 04 August were
mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 05 to 07 August. Some mild depressions are possible
on UT day 07 August due to the forecasted disturbed period.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.30e+06 (normal fluence)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 5.7 p/cc Temp: 232000 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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