[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 11 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 11 Apr 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 12 09:30:09 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/11 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 11 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 12 APRIL - 14 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 11 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 11 Apr:  73/9


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             12 Apr             13 Apr             14 Apr
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 11 April. Yesterday's 
spot group, SN84 at S24E22, has developed into a Bxo/beta group. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next three 
days, 12-14 April. No Earth directed CMEs were observed. On 11 
April, the solar wind speed peaked at 383 km/s, with a peak total 
IMF (Bt) of 7 nT and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +/-5 nT. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to be near nominal levels 
on 12 April. Weak coronal hole effects are possible commencing 
in the latter part of 13 April.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 11 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 11 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110111
      Cocos Island         2   12100110
      Darwin               3   12110111
      Townsville           3   12110111
      Learmonth            4   22110221
      Alice Springs        2   02010110
      Gingin               3   21100221
      Canberra             3   11210111
      Hobart               3   11210111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 11 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   01210010
      Casey                6   23220121
      Mawson              16   23212262

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 11 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 11 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 10 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1001 1202     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
12 Apr     7    Quiet
13 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled
14 Apr     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 11 April. Mostly quiet to unsettled levels were observed 
at southern high latitudes as the expected mild elevation in 
solar wind parameters did not eventuate. Mostly quiet conditions 
are predicted for 12-14 April. Some unsettled periods are possible 
later on 13 April and into 14 April due to weak coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Apr      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
12 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
13 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
14 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal to fair conditions likely on 12-14 April.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
11 Apr     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 15% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      9
Apr      19
May      23

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
12 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
13 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values
14 Apr     5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Some depressions to around 25% in MUFs before 1300 UT 
at Canberra, Darwin, Learmonth and Hobart. Sporadic E observed 
at Darwin 0500-0600 and 1500-1700 UT. Spread F observed at Hobart 
0900-2000 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values for the next three days, 12-14 April, with some mild to 
moderate depressions, mostly in the first half of the UT day.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 10 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 10 Apr
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    36700 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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