[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 2 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 73/9 73/9 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 April. AR2811
(N23W84) and AR2812 (N20W61) remain spotless plage regions. No
Earth directed CMEs observed. Solar activity is expected to be
very low for the next three days, 02-04 April. The 31/0436 UT
CME was modelled and is expected to miss Earth. On 01 April,
the solar wind speed range was 374-432 km/s, with a peak total
IMF (Bt) of 7 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) range of +5/-4 nT.
Solar wind parameters are likely to be mildly elevated on 02-04
April due to weak coronal hole wind effects. There is the chance
of a slow impact from the 30 March CME on 04 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 5 22210221
Darwin 5 22210221
Townsville 5 22210221
Learmonth 5 22210221
Alice Springs 5 22210221
Gingin 7 22210331
Canberra 5 22210221
Hobart 4 22210121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 3 12310010
Casey 10 34210232
Mawson 28 53421165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2222 1213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
03 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Apr 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 01 April, with quiet to major storm levels observed
at southern high latitudes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are
expected 02 to 04 April due to weak coronal hole effects. The
weak 30 March CME may arrive on 04 April. If there is embedded
southward IMF in the solar wind, active conditions may ensue.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Fair-normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Apr Normal Normal Normal
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions observed on 01 April, mostly in
the southern hemisphere. Mostly normal conditions are expected
02-04 April.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 9
Apr 19
May 23
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Some MUF depressions to about 20% were observed to around
09 UT on UT day, 01 April. Depressions to 30% at Darwin 12-17
UT. Spread F was observed at Hobart 10-20 UT. Sporadic E was
observed at Darwin 07-14 UT, Brisbane 11-17 UT and Norfolk Is.
06-07, 12-13 UT. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly
values on 02-04 April with depressions during daytime possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 371 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 84000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list