[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 22 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 22 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 23 09:31:37 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/22 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 22 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 23 SEPTEMBER - 25 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 22 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 22 Sep:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             23 Sep             24 Sep             25 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 22 September. 
Unnumbered region near N29E76 is spotless. No earthward directed 
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. Solar 
wind parameters on 22 September have been near background levels 
with wind speed below 365 km/s and total magnetic field strength 
(Bt) reaching 9 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
between +/-6 nT with some extended southward periods in the first 
half of the day. Very low to low levels of solar activity are 
expected 23 to 25 September. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to begin to elevate over 23 September in response to coronal 
hole effects. The moderate disturbance is expected to persist 
through 24 and 25 September.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 22 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 22 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12212100
      Cocos Island         3   -2211110
      Darwin               4   12212101
      Townsville           5   13222100
      Learmonth            4   12222110
      Alice Springs        3   12212100
      Gingin               4   12222110
      Canberra             3   12211100
      Hobart               3   12212100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 22 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     4   01331000
      Casey                8   24321210
      Mawson              10   24332211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 22 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 22 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 21 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0000 0011     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
23 Sep    10    Quiet to Unsettled
24 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active
25 Sep    15    Unsettled to Active

COMMENT: Mainly quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in 
the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 22 September with 
some unsettled to active conditions in the first half of the 
day in Antarctica. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet to unsettled on 23 September. Coronal hole activity 
is expected to result in unsettled to active conditions on 24 
and 25 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
24 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Normal HF propagation conditions are expected 23 September. 
Some degradations possible late 24 and 25 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
22 Sep     6

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
23 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
24 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
25 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 22 September. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 23 to 25 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 21 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.00E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 21 Sep
Speed: 299 km/sec  Density:   10.8 p/cc  Temp:    13100 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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