[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 18 09:31:31 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 18 SEPTEMBER - 20 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Sep             19 Sep             20 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 17 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions expected. No earthward directed 
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. Through 
UT day 17 September, the solar wind speed varied between 290 
km/s and 340 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 2 and 6 
nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) in the range +5/-5 
nT and the solar wind particle density between 3 and 11 ppcc. 
For the next 3 UT days (18 to 20 September), solar activity is 
expected to be very low and the solar wind parameters are expected 
to be mostly near background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11210000
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               2   11210000
      Townsville           2   12120001
      Learmonth            2   12210001
      Alice Springs        1   01210000
      Gingin               2   11210001
      Canberra             1   01120000
      Hobart               1   01120000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     2   01121000
      Mawson               9   12211015

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1010 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Sep     5    Quiet
19 Sep     5    Quiet
20 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 17 September. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet during UT days 18 to 20 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly 
enhanced on UT day 17 September. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 18 to 20 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Sep    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 17 
September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 18 to 20 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Sep
Speed: 319 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:    11900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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