[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Sep 17 09:31:34 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 SEPTEMBER - 19 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Sep:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Sep             18 Sep             19 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 16 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions expected. No earthward directed 
CMEs were visible in the available coronagraph images. Through 
UT day 16 September, the solar wind speed gradually decreased 
from 360 km/s to 300 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 
1 and 4 nT, the north-south component of IMF (Bz) in the range 
+3/-1 nT and the solar wind particle density between 4 and 12 
ppcc. For the next 3 UT days (17 to 19 September), solar activity 
is expected to be very low and the solar wind parameters are 
expected to be mostly near background levels.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01110010
      Cocos Island         1   01100010
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   00110011
      Learmonth            1   01110010
      Alice Springs        1   01010001
      Gingin               1   01010020
      Canberra             0   00100000
      Hobart               0   00100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00100000
      Mawson               9   22120243

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              6   2222 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Sep     5    Quiet
18 Sep     5    Quiet
19 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions observed in the 
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 16 September with 
one active and one unsettled period at Mawson station. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be quiet during UT days 17 to 19 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
18 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to moderately 
enhanced on UT day 16 September. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 17 to 19 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Sep    -2

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
18 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values
19 Sep     2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to moderately enhanced on UT day 
16 September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be 
mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 17 to 19 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.6E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Sep
Speed: 374 km/sec  Density:    4.4 p/cc  Temp:    72400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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