[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Sep 2020

Tue Sep 15 09:31:28 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 15 SEPTEMBER - 17 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Sep:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Sep             16 Sep             17 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day, 14 September. 
The Sun is currently spotless with no numbered regions on the 
visible disc. No returning regions expected. No CMEs were visible 
in the available coronagraph images. Through UT day 14 September, 
the solar wind speed remained between 320 km/s and 350 km/s by 
0800 UT and then showed a gradual increase to 432 around 1700 
UT. Currently (2300UT) the solar wind speed is around 380 km/s. 
During this day, the total IMF Bt varied between 5 and 10 nT 
and the north-south component of IMB (Bz) in the range +8/-8 
nT. Very low solar activity is predicted for UT days 15 to 17 
September. Solar wind parameters are expected to be mostly near 
background levels over the next three UT days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 14 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22233001
      Cocos Island         4   22222000
      Darwin               5   22222102
      Townsville           9   33233111
      Learmonth            8   32233011
      Alice Springs        6   22233001
      Gingin               8   32233101
      Canberra             6   22233000
      Hobart               7   22234000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Sep :
      Macquarie Island    15   22355000
      Mawson              22   55331105

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg        12
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1110 2213     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Sep     6    Quiet
16 Sep     6    Quiet
17 Sep     8    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions observed in 
the Australian and Antarctic regions on 14 September with isolated 
minor storm levels at Mawson and Macquarie Island. Geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during UT days 15 
to 17 September with isolated unsettled periods possible on 17 
September.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values to mildly 
enhanced on UT day 14 September. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 15 to 17 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Sep     4

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced on UT day 14 
September. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT days 15 to 17 September.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Sep
Speed: 321 km/sec  Density:    7.1 p/cc  Temp:    25300 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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