[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Sep 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 11 09:31:32 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 SEPTEMBER - 13 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Sep:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Sep             12 Sep             13 Sep
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 September. 
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar 
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the 
next three UT days, 11-13 September. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the coronagraph imagery. During 10 September, the 
solar wind speed was near its background levels, varying in the 
range 270-300 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) varied in the ranges 3-5 nT and +5/-4 nT, respectively. 
During the next three UT days, 11-13 September, the solar wind 
speed is expected to remain near its background levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01100001
      Cocos Island         0   01100000
      Darwin               1   01100002
      Townsville           1   11100001
      Learmonth            1   11100000
      Alice Springs        1   01100001
      Gingin               1   01100010
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   01100000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Mawson               4   10100133

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              3   1001 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Sep     3    Quiet
12 Sep     3    Quiet
13 Sep     3    Quiet

COMMENT: During UT day 10 September, geomagnetic conditions were 
quiet in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic 
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet during the next three 
UT days, 11-13 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Sep    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      6
Sep      -13
Oct      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
12 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values
13 Sep     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 10 September, MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic 
regions were mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced 
values. Sporadic E and Spread F were observed over some sites. 
MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly near 
predicted monthly values on UT days 11-13 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.0E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Sep
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    5.3 p/cc  Temp:    22200 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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