[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 September 20 issued 2331 UT on 01 Sep 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Sep 2 09:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 SEPTEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 02 SEPTEMBER - 04 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Sep: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Sep 03 Sep 04 Sep
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 01 September.
There are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar
disk. Very low levels of solar activity are expected for the
next three UT days, 02-04 September. A filament structure near
central meridian is currently monitored for any lift off. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On 01 September, the solar wind speed was enhanced reaching
630 km/s at 01/1130UT, currently around 570 Km/s. This is in
response to high speed streams emanating from a northern hemisphere
coronal hole. The total IMF (Bt) varied mostly in the range 2-6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) varied in the range
+/-5 nT, mostly southward. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain at these enhanced levels today, 02 September as the coronal
hole effects persist then gradually decline towards its nominal
level over 03-04 September as coronal hole effects wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 01 Sep : A K
Australian Region 11 23233331
Cocos Island 8 23232221
Darwin 10 23233321
Townsville 13 23333332
Learmonth 11 23232332
Alice Springs 11 23233331
Gingin 13 23243332
Canberra 12 23333331
Hobart 14 23343331
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Sep :
Macquarie Island 25 25454431
Casey 21 44333352
Mawson 58 55443766
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 27 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 38 (Quiet to unsettled)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 17
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 25 4425 4343
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Sep 15 Quiet to Unsettled with possible isolated Active
periods.
03 Sep 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet to unsettled levels
in the Australian region with isolated active periods on 01 September.
The Antarctic region observed major storm levels. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be quiet to unsettled for the next
three UT days, 02-04 September. Isolated active periods may be
observed today, 02 September as the high solar wind streams associated
with coronal hole are expected to persist.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Sep Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
03 Sep Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 02-04 September. Some degradations
may be observed in mid to high latitude regions on 02-03 September
due to the recent increase in geomagnetic activity.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Sep 1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 6
Sep -13
Oct -14
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
03 Sep -10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were near
predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on UT day 01 September.
Sporadic E was observed over some sites. MUFs in the Australian
region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 02-04 September. Some MUF degradations may be observed
on UT days 02-03 September in response to the recent increase
in the geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Aug
Speed: 541 km/sec Density: 8.3 p/cc Temp: 309000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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