[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 11 10:31:33 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 11 OCTOBER - 13 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Oct:  74/11


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             11 Oct             12 Oct             13 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    74/11              74/11              74/11

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 October. There 
are currently two numbered regions on the visible solar disk, 
AR2774 and AR2775. Very low levels of solar activity are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 October. No CMEs were observed 
in the available coronagraph imagery. During 10 October, the 
solar wind speed was mostly steady, near its background level. 
The solar wind speed range was 280-310 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
was steady near 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was -2/+4 nT. During the next three UT days, 11-13 October, the 
solar wind speed is expected to remain mostly near its background 
levels.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 10 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   10010101
      Cocos Island         1   11100000
      Darwin               1   11000001
      Townsville           1   10010111
      Learmonth            1   11000101
      Alice Springs        1   20000001
      Gingin               1   10010110
      Canberra             0   00010000
      Hobart               0   00010100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00020000
      Casey                3   22110111
      Mawson               3   11101112

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         1
           Planetary              2   1000 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
11 Oct     7    Quiet
12 Oct     7    Quiet
13 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 10 October, quiet geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global conditions 
are expected to be mostly quiet on UT days 11-13 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
11 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
13 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 11-13 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
10 Oct   -12

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
11 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
12 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values
13 Oct   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian and Antarctic regions were mostly 
near predicted monthly values on UT day 10 October. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 11-13 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 09 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Oct
Speed: 315 km/sec  Density:    4.2 p/cc  Temp:    13600 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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