[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 October 20 issued 2331 UT on 04 Oct 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Oct 5 10:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 OCTOBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 OCTOBER - 07 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Oct:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             05 Oct             06 Oct             07 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 04 October. No 
Earthbound CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph data. 
Through UT day 04 October, the solar wind speed showed a gradual 
decline from around 400 km/s to 340 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) 
stayed between 2 and 3 nT, the IMF north-south component (Bz) 
varied in the range +3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density 
varied from around 1 to 3 ppcc. Very low solar activity is expected 
for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 04 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Cocos Island         1   11101100
      Darwin               1   11100101
      Townsville           3   12111111
      Learmonth            2   11101201
      Alice Springs        1   11001101
      Gingin               2   11012100
      Canberra             2   01012100
      Hobart               2   11012101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     1   00011100
      Casey                7   23312201
      Mawson               9   23102134

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   1222 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
05 Oct     5    Quiet
06 Oct     5    Quiet
07 Oct     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 04 October. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions 
with isolated unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic 
region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to stay at 
quiet levels for the next three UT days, 05 to 07 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
05 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
06 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal
07 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values with 
minor enhancements and also minor depressions at some low to 
mid latitude locations on UT day 04 October. MUFs are expected 
to be near predicted monthly values with the possibility of minor 
to mild enhancements on UT days 05 to 07 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
04 Oct   -10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      -2
Oct      -13
Nov      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
05 Oct    -5    Near predicted monthly values
06 Oct    -2    Near predicted monthly values
07 Oct    -2    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with minor enhancements and also minor depressions 
at some locations on UT day 04 October. MUFs in the Australian 
region are expected to be near predicted monthly values with 
the possibility of minor to mild enhancements on UT days 05 to 
07 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 03 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+09   (very high fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:31%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Oct
Speed: 441 km/sec  Density:    4.9 p/cc  Temp:   130000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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