[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 30 10:31:36 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 30 NOVEMBER - 02 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M4/-- 1311UT possible lower European
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Nov: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Nov 01 Dec 02 Dec
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 113/64 113/64
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low to moderate levels on UT day
29 November, with a few C-class flares and one M-class flare.
The C-class flares were from active region 2786, which is currently
located at the solar centre (S19E02). The M-class flare, M4.4,
was from the east limb and peaked at 29/1311 UT. It triggered
a fast moving CME with an estimated propagation speed of approximately
1500 km/s. Our model runs indicate that this CME is unlikely
to impact the earth. Solar activity is expected to be at low
to moderate level for the next three UT days, 30 November - 02
December, with a high chance of more C-class flares and a chance
of M-class flares. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed
was at nominal levels, varying in the range 350-400 km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz) varied in the
ranges 3-8 nT and +4/-6 nT, respectively. Mostly nominal solar
wind speed is expected for the next three UT days, 30 November
- 02 December.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Nov : A K
Australian Region 2 11111101
Cocos Island 1 11101100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11211101
Learmonth 3 11112101
Alice Springs 2 11111100
Gingin 1 01111100
Canberra 3 11211101
Hobart 2 01211101
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Nov :
Macquarie Island 4 02132000
Casey 15 35432211
Mawson 9 23323310
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3322 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Nov 5 Quiet
01 Dec 5 Quiet
02 Dec 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region and mostly quiet to active conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region on UT day 29 November. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected for UT day 30 November - 02 December. The 3-day
geomagnetic forecasts may change if the ongoing flaring activity
does trigger a fast-moving CME towards earth.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Nov Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Nov Normal Normal Normal
01 Dec Normal Normal Normal
02 Dec Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
during the next three UT days, 30 November - 02 December. Shortwave
fadeouts are possible over the next three UT days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Nov 19
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
02 Dec 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly to mildly enhanced levels during UT day 29 November.
The enhancements are due to an increase in ionisation level associated
with the recent flaring activity. MUFs in the Australian region
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced
levels for the next three UT days, 30 November - 02 December.
Shortwave fadeouts are possible over the next three days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Nov
Speed: 424 km/sec Density: 2.9 p/cc Temp: 56500 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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