[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Nov 28 10:31:36 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   106/55             104/53             102/50

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 November with two 
high level B-class flares and one C-class flare from region 2786 
(S19E27). The largest flare was C1.5. There are currently 5 numbered 
regions on the visible disk; four of them were mostly quiet on 
27 November. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. Solar activity is expected to be mostly 
low for the next three UT days, 28-30 November, with a chance 
of M-class flares from region 2786. During UT day 27 November 
the solar wind speed was steady, varying in the range 410-450 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and its north-south component (Bz) varied 
in the ranges 3-8 nT and +5/-7 nT, respectively. The solar wind 
speed is expected to remain mildly enhanced on 28 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   12233111
      Cocos Island         4   12123100
      Darwin               6   12133111
      Townsville           8   12233122
      Learmonth            8   22134102
      Alice Springs        7   22233111
      Gingin               8   22234101
      Canberra             7   12233121
      Hobart               7   12233111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island    18   11265210
      Casey               14   44423112
      Mawson              11   33333211

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   2011 2222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov     7    Quiet
29 Nov     7    Quiet
30 Nov     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region and mostly quiet to active conditions 
were observed in the Antarctic region on 27 November. Mostly 
quiet conditions are expected for 28-30 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
during the next three UT days, 28-30 November. HF fadeouts are 
possible because there is a chance that AR 2786 will produce 
an M-class flare.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Nov    11

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 27 
November and is current for 27-29 Nov. MUFs in the Australian 
region were mostly near predicted monthly values during UT day 
27 November. Mild enhancements were seen in the Northern Australian 
region during local night. Mild depressions were observed in 
the Southern Australian region after local dawn. Sporadic E blanketing 
was observed at some sites. MUFs in the Australian regions are 
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the next 
three UT days, 28-30 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.90E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B3.7

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 398 km/sec  Density:    4.8 p/cc  Temp:    33100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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