[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 21 Nov 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 22 10:31:33 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 22 NOVEMBER - 24 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Nov: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Nov: 85/27
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Nov 23 Nov 24 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 87/30 89/33
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 21 November. AR
2783 (S22E17) maintains its Hsx/alpha classification while newly
assigned AR 2784 (N34E29) developed over the past day and is
a Dso/beta group. Solar activity is expected to be very low to
low. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed on 21 Nov. The solar
wind speed range was 323-525 km/s, above 400 km/s since 1707
UT. The peak total IMF (Bt) was 12 nT at 2206 UT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range +8/-10 nT, predominantly southward. The solar
wind speed is expected to be moderately enhanced on 22-23 Nov
due to recurrent coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Nov : A K
Australian Region 6 11003223
Cocos Island 3 11001122
Darwin 5 21102123
Townsville 8 21013233
Learmonth 6 11013223
Alice Springs 6 11003223
Gingin 6 11003223
Canberra 7 11003233
Hobart 8 12013233
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Nov :
Macquarie Island 10 01025322
Casey 14 34323233
Mawson 21 33113346
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9 3422 1011
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Nov 12 Mostly Unsettled. Possible isolated Active periods.
23 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled. Slight chance of an isolated
Active period.
24 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions
with isolated periods of active to storm levels were observed
in the southern high latitude region on UT day 21 November. Quiet
to unsettled conditions with isolated active conditions are possible
on 22-23 Nov due to recurrent coronal hole effects. There is
a slight chance of weak CME effects later on 23 Nov.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair conditions 22 to 24 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Nov -8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to
25% 00-05 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct -13
Nov 3
Dec 5
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Nov -15 Near predicted monthly values with minor to moderate
depressions at times.
23 Nov -10 Near predicted monthly values
24 Nov -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted
monthly values during UT day 21 November. Sporadic E observed
at Brisbane, Canberra, Sydney and Norfolk Is. during night hours
and some locations 22-23 UT. Minor to moderate depressions possible
at times 22-24 Nov. Sporadic E possible at times.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Nov
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 72300 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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