[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 November 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Nov 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Nov 8 10:31:46 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 NOVEMBER 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 08 NOVEMBER - 10 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Nov:  91/36


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Nov             09 Nov             10 Nov
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              92/37              90/34

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 07 November. Two 
low C-class and several B-class flares were observed- the largest 
being a C1.8 that came from region 2781 and peaked at 0615 UT. 
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the coronagraph images. 
During UT day 07 November, the solar wind speed varied from around 
440 km/s to 500 km/s, the total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT 
and 8 nT while showing a slow decline, IMF Bz varied in the range 
+7/-4 nT and the solar wind particle density in the range of 
7 to 10 ppcc. The effect of a coronal hole may keep the solar 
wind parameters enhanced on UT day 08 November and then gradually 
decline to normal values. Solar activity is expected to be low 
with a small chance of isolated M-class activity for the next 
three UT days (08 to 10 November).

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Nov: Quiet

Estimated Indices 07 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11210222
      Darwin               4   21210122
      Townsville           4   11210222
      Learmonth            7   11221332
      Alice Springs        3   11110122
      Gingin               7   11221332
      Canberra             4   11210222
      Hobart               4   11210222    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   11110011
      Casey               21   45432333
      Mawson              28   23232565

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   1111 2321     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Nov     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
09 Nov     4    Quiet
10 Nov     4    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions were 
observed in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 07 
November with two active and 4 minor storm periods also recorded 
in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be mostly quiet with the possibility of some unsettled periods 
on 08 November due to waning coronal hole effects. Quiet geomagnetic 
conditions may be expected for UT days 09 and 10 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Nov      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
10 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted monthly values on UT 
day 07 November with minor depressions in some low-latitude locations 
during local night times. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the next three UT days (08 to 10 November) 
with the possibility of some periods of minor depressions on 
08 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Nov    -8

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      -13
Nov      3
Dec      5

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Nov    -5    Near predicted monthly values
09 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values
10 Nov     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were mostly near predicted 
monthly values on UT day 07 November with minor depressions in 
some northern locations during local night times. MUFs in the 
Australian regions are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values for the next three UT days (08 to 10 November) with the 
possibility of some periods of minor depressions on 08 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.20E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Nov
Speed: 472 km/sec  Density:   10.6 p/cc  Temp:   234000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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