[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 May 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 11 09:31:34 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 11 MAY - 13 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 May: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 May: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 May 12 May 13 May
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 May. The visible
disc was spotless. No regions are expected to return. Very low
levels of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days,
11-13 May. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. Through UT day 10 May, the solar wind speed
was near its background values, varying in the range 290-330
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) and the north-south IMF component (Bz)
varied in the ranges 1-7 nT and -6/+6 nT, respectively. Some
mild perturbations in the IMF conditions were observed between
10/1400 UT and 10/2200 UT, possibly caused a weak CIR associated
with patchy coronal holes. Nominal solar wind conditions are
expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 May, with a possibility
of mild rise due to coronal hole effect.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 May : A K
Australian Region 1 10000111
Cocos Island 1 01000111
Darwin 1 10100111
Townsville 2 11100112
Learmonth 2 10100122
Alice Springs 0 00000011
Gingin 1 00000112
Canberra 0 00000001
Hobart 1 10000111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 May :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 12100112
Mawson 11 01200016
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 May : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 May : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 2 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 May 5 Quiet
12 May 5 Quiet
13 May 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet geomagnetic conditions were observed on UT day
10 May in the Australian regions. The Antarctic region observed
quiet to unsettled conditions. Quiet conditions are expected
on UT days 11-13 May with a possibility of some unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 May Normal Normal Normal
12 May Normal Normal Normal
13 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation are expected for the next
three UT days (11-13 May).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 May 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
No data available during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 1
May -13
Jun -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
12 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
13 May 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were mostly near predicted values to moderately
enhanced levels in the Australian region during UT day 10 May.
The enhancements were mostly observed during local night. Occurrences
of sporadic E were observed over some Australian stations. Normal
MUFs are expected for the next three UT days (11-13 May) in the
Australian region.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 May
Speed: 317 km/sec Density: 4.3 p/cc Temp: 18100 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Bureau of Meteorology
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