[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 May 20 issued 2331 UT on 02 May 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 3 09:31:20 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 MAY 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 03 MAY - 05 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 May:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 May:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             03 May             04 May             05 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 02 May. Currently, 
the visible disc is spotless. No Earth-bound CMEs were observed 
in the available LASCO and STEREO images. Very low levels of 
solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 03-05 
May. During UT day 02 May, the solar wind speed varied mostly 
between 300-340 km/s with two jumps up to 450 Km/s at 02/0730UT 
and 02/1240UT. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-6 nT 
and the north-south IMF component (Bz) was between -5 and +4 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at background to slightly 
enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 03-05 May due to 
small patchy coronal holes influences.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 May: Quiet

Estimated Indices 02 May : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11111101
      Cocos Island         1   01111000
      Darwin               3   21121101
      Townsville           4   11221112
      Learmonth            3   12221100
      Alice Springs        2   01211101
      Gingin               1   02110000
      Canberra             1   01111100
      Hobart               2   11111100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 May :
      Macquarie Island     1   00112000
      Casey                5   23221100
      Mawson              11   13221125

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 May : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 May : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 May :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   0 1 2 2 2 2 1 1     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
03 May    10    Quiet to Unsettled
04 May    12    Quiet to Unsettled
05 May     7    Mostly Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 02 May, the geomagnetic activity in the Australian 
region was at Quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
Quiet to Unsettled conditions. Global geomagnetic activity is 
expected to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three UT days, 
03-05 May, with possible Unsettled periods due to weak coronal 
hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
04 May      Normal         Normal         Normal
05 May      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 03-05 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
02 May    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Apr      1
May      -13
Jun      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
03 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
04 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted 
monthly values for all regions with periods of minor to moderate 
enhancements on UT day 02 May. Sporadic E layers were observed 
over some sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are 
expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT days, 
03-05 May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 01 May
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:  6.6e+04 
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 May
Speed: 302 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    23500 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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