[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Apr 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri May 1 09:31:32 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 April. Very 
low levels of solar activity are expected for the next three 
UT days, 01-03 May. Currently, the visible disc has three numbered 
regions, 2760 to 2762. Sunspots were also observed in a fourth 
region which is currently at N29E20. No returning regions are 
expected. No Earth-bound CMEs were observed in the available 
LASCO and STEREO images. During UT day 30 April, the solar wind 
speed has decreased from 310 km/s to 270 km/s, currently near 
280 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 2-5 nT and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) was between -2 and +2 nT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its background 
values for the next three UT days, 01-03 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000000
      Cocos Island         1   11010000
      Darwin               0   10000001
      Townsville           1   11000001
      Learmonth            1   11010000
      Alice Springs        0   00000000
      Gingin               0   00000000
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                2   22110000
      Mawson               4   41110000

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         2
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              2   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May     7    Quiet
02 May     7    Quiet
03 May     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 30 April, the geomagnetic activity in the 
Australian region was at quiet levels. The Antarctic region observed 
mostly quiet levels; one active period was detected at Mawson 
station. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to stay mostly 
at quiet levels for the next three UT days, 01-03 May, with a 
chance of isolated unsettled periods.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
on UT day 30 April. Mostly normal HF conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 01-03 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      1
Apr      -14
May      -14

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 May     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 May     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mainly near predicted 
monthly values with periods of minor to moderate enhancements 
for the Australian regions on UT day 30 April. Sporadic E layers 
were observed over most sites. Mostly normal HF propagation conditions 
are expected in the Australian regions for the next three UT 
days, 01-03 May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.5E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 356 km/sec  Density:    2.7 p/cc  Temp:    24100 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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