[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 20 issued 2353 UT on 30 Mar 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 31 10:53:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 30Mar. There are currently
no numbered regions on the visible disk and no earth-directed
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed was ~360km/s from 00UT to 1132UT after which it increased
to ~510km/s for the remainder of the UT day. The north-south
component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) ranged between
+/-4nT from 00UT-15UT after which it was predominantly southward,
ranging between +6nT and -7nT. Solar wind speeds are expected
to be enhanced over the next 24-36 hours due to the influence
of a high speed solar wind stream from a negative polarity south
polar extension coronal hole. Solar activity is expected to be
Very Low for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 11112332
Cocos Island 6 12101332
Darwin 7 12112332
Townsville 8 12102333
Learmonth 9 11112343
Alice Springs 5 01002332
Gingin 11 21012443
Canberra 2 00101122
Hobart 8 11222332
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 9 01222342
Casey 13 24322333
Mawson 37 43222666
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 1022 3211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 14 Unsettled to Active
01 Apr 8 Quiet to Unsettled
02 Apr 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed for
the Australian region 30Mar with Antarctic regions experiencing
Unsettled to Active conditions. Unsettled to Active geomagnetic
conditions expected for the Australian region over the next 24
hours with Active to possible Minor Storm periods for Antarctic
regions. Quiet to Unsettled conditions for Australian regions
and Unsettled to Active conditions for Antarctic regions 01Apr-02Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced for 30Mar. MUFs expected
to be near predicted monthly values for low-mid latitudes and
disturbed ionospheric support for high latitudes for the next
2 days. MUFs near predicted monthly values for all latitudes
02Apr.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 0 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr -5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to enhanced for all regions on 30Mar. Notable
sporadic E observed again at SWS stations Cocos Is and Learmonth.
MUFs are expected to range from near predicted monthly values
to slightly enhanced for Equatorial, Northern AUS and Southern
AUS/NZ region 31Mar-01Apr and disturbed ionospheric support expected
for Antarctic regions due to increased geomagnetic activity.
MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values 02Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 80500 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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