[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 29 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Mar 30 10:31:29 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 68/2
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 68/2 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 29 Mar. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no
earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three days, 30 Mar- 01 Apr. During UT day 29 Mar, the solar wind
speed varied in the range 380-430 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) varied between 2 nT and 6 nT and the north-south
component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied in the
range +/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected reach moderately
enhanced levels today, 30 Mar due to a possible connection with
a high speed stream from a south polar extension coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 11223310
Cocos Island 5 12212300
Darwin 6 10223301
Townsville 7 11223311
Learmonth 6 11223310
Alice Springs 5 01223300
Gingin 6 01223310
Canberra 2 00112200
Hobart 7 11233310
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 8 00234310
Casey 12 23433311
Mawson 24 32233464
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0112 1212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
31 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Apr 7 Mostly Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed for
the Australian region 29 Mar. Antarctic region experienced mainly
Quiet to Active conditions, with Mawson station observing an
isolated Major Storm period. Global geomagnetic activity is expected
to be at Quiet to Unsettled levels for the next three days, 30
Mar- 01 Apr, and a times may reach Active levels due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal Normal
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 80% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Apr 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian region for 29 Mar. Enhanced
HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions as well as Northern
and Southern Aus during local night. Similar levels of ionospheric
support are expected for the next three days, 30 Mar- 01 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 6.0 p/cc Temp: 62500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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