[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 28 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 29 10:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 29 MARCH - 31 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Mar 30 Mar 31 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 69/3 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 28 Mar. There
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no
earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next
three days, 29-31 Mar. During UT day 28 Mar, the solar wind speed
varied in the range 360-410 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic
field (Bt) stayed between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied in the range +/-3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain near its nominal/background
levels today, 29 Mar. On 30-31 Mar, the solar wind is expected
reach moderately enhanced levels due to the high speed stream
from an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 01221012
Cocos Island 3 01211012
Darwin 3 12220011
Townsville 3 01221012
Learmonth 4 01221022
Alice Springs 2 01220011
Gingin 4 01120023
Canberra 2 01120001
Hobart 3 01131011
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00041000
Casey 9 24321022
Mawson 21 12323056
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 4 2201 1220
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Mar 7 Mostly Quiet
30 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
31 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 28 Mar was mostly Quiet in
the Australian region. The Antarctic sites observed Quiet to
Active levels. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
remain Quiet today, 29 Mar, then increase to Unsettled levels
with a chance of isolated Active periods for 30-31 Mar due to
coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
30 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Mar -6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
31 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced ones across
the Australian region on 28 Mar. MUFs are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for 29-31 Mar.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Mar
Speed: 405 km/sec Density: 5.4 p/cc Temp: 65600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list