[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 27 Mar 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 28 10:31:23 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 28 MARCH - 30 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Mar:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Mar             29 Mar             30 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 27 Mar. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible disk and no 
earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph 
imagery. Solar activity is expected to be very low for the next 
three days, 28-30 Mar. During UT day 27 Mar, the solar wind speed 
varied in the range 380-420 km/s. The total interplanetary magnetic 
field (Bt) stayed between 2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component 
of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied in the range +/-4nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to be near its nominal/background 
levels during 28-29 Mar. On 30 Mar, the solar wind is expected 
to enhance in response to high-speed streams associated with 
a coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Mar: Quiet with isolated 
Unsettled periods.

Estimated Indices 27 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11002220
      Cocos Island         3   11101220
      Darwin               3   11002221
      Townsville           3   11012220
      Learmonth            6   22101330
      Alice Springs        3   11002220
      Gingin               5   21001330
      Canberra             2   11001120
      Hobart               5   12122220    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11021100
      Casey               13   34411330
      Mawson              29   53402652

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              4   1000 1203     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Mar     7    Mostly Quiet
29 Mar     7    Mostly Quiet
30 Mar    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 27 Mar was Quiet with some 
isolated Unsettled periods in the Australian region. The Antarctic 
region observed isolated Active and Minor Storm periods. Global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly Quiet for 28-29 
Mar, then increase to Unsettled levels with a chance of isolated 
Active periods for 30 Mar due to coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Mar      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Mar    -1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 35% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
29 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values
30 Mar    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable Frequencies (MUFs) ranged mostly from 
near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced ones across 
Australian regions on 27 Mar. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values for 28-30 Mar.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.30E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 7%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec  Density:    5.1 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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