[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 March 20 issued 2345 UT on 21 Mar 2020
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 22 10:45:49 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 22 MARCH - 24 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 Mar 23 Mar 24 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 21Mar. There are currently
no numbered regions on the visible disk and no earth-directed
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind
speed increased from 393km/s at 00UT to a maximum of 524km/s
at 0957UT and is currently 427km/s at the time of this report.
The north-south component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz)
ranged between +5nT and -4nT over the UT day with a minor sustained
southward excursion between 04UT-06UT. Solar wind parameters
may be slightly enhanced over the next 24 hours due to continued
coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low
for the next three days.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 21 Mar : A K
Australian Region 7 22223211
Cocos Island 4 21112211
Darwin 7 22223211
Townsville 8 22233211
Learmonth 9 22233222
Alice Springs 8 22233211
Gingin 8 21223322
Canberra 3 11222000
Hobart 8 21333211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 11333110
Casey 14 44332222
Mawson 38 44632456
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 12 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 7 2120 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
23 Mar 6 Quiet
24 Mar 6 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet to Unsettled geomagnetic activity observed for
the Australian region 21Mar with Antarctic regions experiencing
Unsettled to Active conditions due to mild coronal hole effects
over the last 24 hours. Similar geomagnetic conditions expected
for the Australian region over the next 24 hours with Unsettled
to Active conditions for Antarctic regions. Mostly Quiet conditions
for Australian regions and Unsettled conditions for Antarctic
regions 23Mar-24Mar.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced for 21Mar. Similar levels
of enhanced ionospheric support expected for the next 24 hours
with MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values for 23Mar-24Mar
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 Mar 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 45% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
23 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
24 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted
monthly values to enhanced for all regions on 21Mar. Notable
sporadic E observed again at SWS stations Cocos Is, Niue Is,
Norfolk Is, Learmonth and Perth. MUFs are expected to range from
near predicted monthly values to slightly enhanced for the AUS-NZ
region 22Mar. MUFs expected to be near predicted monthly values
for 23Mar-24Mar.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 Mar
Speed: 421 km/sec Density: 5.8 p/cc Temp: 96400 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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