[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 20 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 20 Mar 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 21 10:31:24 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/20 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 20 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 21 MARCH - 23 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 20 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 20 Mar:  72/8


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             21 Mar             22 Mar             23 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    72/8               72/8               72/8

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 20Mar. There are currently 
no numbered regions on the visible disk and no earth-directed 
CMEs observed in available coronagraph imagery. The solar wind 
speed has gradually declined from 489km/s at 00UT to be 398km/s 
at the time of this report. The north-south component of interplanetary 
magnetic field (Bz) ranged between +2nT and -3nT during the first 
half of the UT. Bz was predominantly southward for the latter 
half of the UT day ranging between +1nT and -4nT with notable 
sustained southward excursions. Solar wind parameters may be 
slightly enhanced over the next 2 days due to continued coronal 
hole effects. Solar activity is expected to be Very Low for the 
next three days. ACE EPAM data indicates an energetic ion enhancement 
event beginning 20/0740UT, which can be a precursor to increased 
geomagnetic activity over next 24-36 hours.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 20 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 20 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   11101222
      Cocos Island         3   11101221
      Darwin               4   11101222
      Townsville           5   21201222
      Learmonth            5   11201322
      Alice Springs        4   11101222
      Gingin               6   11102332
      Canberra             1   11101100
      Hobart               4   11202221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 20 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     4   11201221
      Casey               10   33311223
      Mawson              30   52211556

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 20 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             8   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 20 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary             10   3232 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
21 Mar     7    Quiet
22 Mar     7    Quiet
23 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Mostly Quiet geomagnetic activity observed for the Australian 
region 20Mar with Antarctic regions experiencing Unsettled to 
Active conditions due to mild coronal hole effects over the last 
24 hours. Similar geomagnetic conditions expected for the Australian 
region over the 3 days with possible isolated Unsettled periods. 
Unsettled to Active conditions for Antarctic regions 21Mar-22Mar 
and mostly Quiet to Unsettled conditions 23Mar.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
21 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
22 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for 20Mar. Similar levels 
of ionospheric support expected for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
20 Mar    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
21 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
22 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
23 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum Usable frequencies (MUFs) ranged from near predicted 
monthly values to enhanced for all regions on 20Mar. Notable 
sporadic E observed at SWS stations Cocos Is, Niue Is, Norfolk 
Is, Learmonth and Perth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted 
monthly values for the next 3 days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 19 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 19 Mar
Speed: 488 km/sec  Density:    7.6 p/cc  Temp:   188000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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