[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 19 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 20 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 20 MARCH - 22 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
20 Mar 21 Mar 22 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 19 March. No
earth-directed CMEs have been observed. During this day, the
solar wind speed first increased from 410 km/s to 510 km/s by
0740 UT and then stayed in the range of 470 km/s and 510 km/s;
the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed between 3
nT and 7 nT; and the north south component of interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) first showed variations between -5 nT and
+6 nT by 1000 UT and then stayed more stable in the range of
+2/-2 nT. During this day, the solar wind particle density varied
in the range 6 to 10 ppcc. Solar wind parameters may stay slightly
enhanced through the next three UT days (20 to 22 March) due
to coronal hole effects. Solar activity is expected to stay very
low for the next three UT days (20 to 22 March).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 19 Mar : A K
Australian Region 9 31224211
Cocos Island 5 21223200
Darwin 6 21223201
Townsville 11 31334211
Learmonth 9 31224211
Alice Springs 6 22223201
Gingin 9 31224211
Canberra 5 21223100
Hobart 14 32434311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Mar :
Macquarie Island 16 22445300
Casey 15 34433222
Mawson 29 64433344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1100 2222
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
20 Mar 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
21 Mar 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
22 Mar 7 Mostly quiet to unsettled, some active periods
possible
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
with some active periods were observed in the Australian and
Antarctic regions on UT day 19 March. Nearly similar geomagnetic
conditions may be expected for the next three UT days, 20 to
22 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
22 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced for UT day 19 March.
Nearly similar levels of ionospheric support may be expected
for the next three UT days (20 to 22 March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
19 Mar 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 55% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
20 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by around
30%
21 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by around
30%
22 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values/enhanced by around
30%
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to significantly enhanced across the Australian
region for UT day 19 March. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support may be expected for the next three UT days (20 to 22
March) in the region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 18 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.6 p/cc Temp: 79700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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