[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 18 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 19 10:31:23 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 19 MARCH - 21 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Mar: 72/8
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 72/8 72/8
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 18 March. No
earth-directed CMEs have been observed. During this day, the
solar wind speed varied mostly in the range 380 km/s to 430 km/s
; the total interplanetary magnetic field (Bt) stayed between
4 nT and 7 nT, and the north south component of interplanetary
magnetic field (Bz) varied in the range of +5/-4 nT. During this
day, the solar wind particle density varied in the range 4 to
10 ppcc. Solar wind parameters may stay slightly enhanced through
UT day 19 March due to weak coronal hole effects and then decline
to more nominal values. Solar activity is expected to stay very
low for the next three UT day (19 to 21 March).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 11102331
Cocos Island 5 11112320
Darwin 4 11102221
Townsville 5 11102232
Learmonth 6 11102331
Alice Springs 5 01102331
Gingin 8 11002441
Canberra 2 11001120
Hobart 5 01102232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01002121
Casey 13 34322332
Mawson 26 22112664
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 4 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 1012 2212
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Mar 5 Quiet
21 Mar 5 Quiet
COMMENT: Mostly quiet to unsettled levels of geomagnetic activity
were observed in the Australian region on UT day 18 March. Geomagnetic
conditions at high latitudes were quiet to active during this
period. Mostly quiet to unsettled geomagnetic conditions may
be expected for UT day 19 March. Mostly quiet geomagnetic conditions
may be expected on UT days 20 and 21 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
20 Mar Normal Normal Normal
21 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for UT day 18 March with periods of mild to moderate
enhancements. Minor depressions were also recorded in some low-latitude
regions during local day time. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric
support may be expected for the next three UT days (19 to 21
March).
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values
21 Mar 6 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian region for UT day 18 March
with periods of mild to moderate enhancements. Minor depressions
were also recorded in northern Australian region during local
day time. Nearly similar levels of ionospheric support may be
expected for the next three UT days (19 to 21 March) in the region.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Mar
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 6.3 p/cc Temp: 98900 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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