[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 16 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 17 10:31:30 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Mar 18 Mar 19 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 69/3 69/3
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 16 March. No
earth-directed CMEs have been observed. During this day, the
solar wind speed varied between 320 and 370 km/s, total interplanetary
magnetic field (Bt) between 2 nT and 7 nT and the north south
component of interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) varied in the
range +2/-4 nT. During this period, the solar wind particle density
varied in the range 6 to 20 ppcc. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions
are expected for the next 2 UT days (17 and 18 March). Solar
wind parameters may show some strengthening from UT day 19 March
due to the possible effect of a coronal hole. Solar activity
is expected to stay very low for the next three UT day (17 to
19 March).
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11112111
Cocos Island 1 10101110
Darwin 2 01111111
Townsville 4 11122111
Learmonth 3 11111121
Alice Springs 3 11112111
Gingin 3 11012220
Canberra 0 00011000
Hobart 5 11122221
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
Macquarie Island 3 00023110
Casey 7 22321122
Mawson 19 53213344
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Mar 5 Quiet
18 Mar 5 Quiet
19 Mar 7 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Mostly quiet levels of geomagnetic activity were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 16 March. Geomagnetic conditions
at high latitudes were quiet to active during this period. Mostly
quiet geomagnetic conditions may be expected for the next three
UT days (17 to 19 March). Some unsettled periods may be observed
on UT day 19 March due to the possible effect of a coronal hole.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values for UT day 16 March with periods of mild to significant
enhancements, mainly in the low- and mid-latitude regions. Nearly
similar levels of ionospheric support may be expected for the
next three UT days (17 to 19 March).
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Mar 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 110% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar 4 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 2 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values across the Australian region for UT day 16 March
with periods of mild to significant enhancements. Nearly similar
levels of ionospheric support may be expected for the next three
UT days (17 to 19 March).
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 359 km/sec Density: 4.8 p/cc Temp: 43700 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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