[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 March 20 issued 2346 UT on 14 Mar 2020

Sun Mar 15 10:46:54 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 15 MARCH - 17 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Mar:  68/2

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             15 Mar             16 Mar             17 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    69/3               69/3               69/3

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 14 March. There a currently 
no numbered regions on the visible disc and no Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed (Vsw) has gradually declined to ambient levels, 
beginning the UT day at 415km/s and is currently 364km/s at the 
time of this report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) 
ranged between +2 and -3nT over the UT day. Solar wind speed 
is expected to remain at nominal levels for the next 3 days with 
the chance of some minor enhancements in solar wind speed due 
to small patchy/fragmented coronal holes reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 14 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   00011101
      Cocos Island         1   10000110
      Darwin               1   10000101
      Townsville           1   0011100-
      Learmonth            1   00011111
      Alice Springs        0   00001001
      Gingin               1   00011111
      Canberra             0   00000000
      Hobart               2   01021101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   02011000
      Casey                8   23322122
      Mawson              10   22121144

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              6   2222 1111     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
15 Mar     5    Quiet
16 Mar     5    Quiet
17 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Quiet conditions observed for the Australian region 
on 14Mar. Antarctic sites experienced conditions ranging from 
Quiet to Active. Geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly 
at Quiet levels for the next three days with possible Unsettled 
to Active periods for High latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next 3 days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
14 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
15 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
17 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values across the Australian region for 14Mar. Variable 
HF conditions observed for Equatorial regions ranging from moderate 
depressions to slightly enhanced MUFs. Enhancements observed 
for Northern Aus regions during local night. Sporadic-E occurrences 
were observed over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric 
support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 13 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Mar
Speed: 423 km/sec  Density:    6.2 p/cc  Temp:   106000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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