[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 20 issued 2352 UT on 13 Mar 2020

Sat Mar 14 10:52:55 EST 2020

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar:  69/3

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             14 Mar             15 Mar             16 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for 13 March. There a currently 
no numbered regions on the visible disc and no Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. The 
solar wind speed (Vsw) was slightly elevated over the last 24 
hours. Vsw was ~400km/s at 00UT and gradually increased to reach 
a maximum of 465km/s and is now ~420km/s at the time of this 
report. The north-south component of the IMF (Bz) ranged between 
+5 and -7nT for the first half of the UT day after which it decreased 
in magnitude to fluctuate between +/-2nT. Solar wind speed is 
expected to return to nominal levels for the next 3 days with 
the chance of some minor enhancements in solar wind speed due 
to small patchy/fragmented coronal holes reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk. Very low levels of solar activity 
are expected for the next three days.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   21231210
      Cocos Island         3   21120110
      Darwin               4   21221210
      Townsville           6   22231211
      Learmonth            7   32231211
      Alice Springs        5   21231210
      Gingin               5   21131211
      Canberra             2   11121100
      Hobart               7   22141210    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     5   12142000
      Casey               14   34431321
      Mawson              15   34221244

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               2   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              6   0120 2231     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
14 Mar     7    Quiet
15 Mar     6    Quiet
16 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 13 March was Quiet to Unsettled 
for the Australian region. Antarctic sites experienced conditions 
ranging from Quiet to Active. Geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly at Quiet levels for the next three days with possible 
Unsettled periods for Low-Mid latitudes and isolated Active periods 
for High latitudes.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
13 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
14 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
15 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next days.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
13 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 50% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 55% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
14 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted 
monthly values to slightly enhanced for the Australian region 
over the last 24 hours. Mild to moderate depressions observed 
for Northern Aus regions as well as notable enhancements. Enhanced 
MUFs observed at SWS Cocos Is station during local evening. Sporadic-E 
occurrences were observed over some sites. Similar levels of 
ionospheric support are expected for the next three days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.7E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    9.2 p/cc  Temp:    31300 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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