[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 13 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 13 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Mar 14 10:31:38 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/13 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 13 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 14 MARCH - 16 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 13 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 13 Mar: 69/3
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
14 Mar 15 Mar 16 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low for UT day 12 March, with
no flares. Currently there is one numbered region on the visible
disc, AR 2758, located near S35W20. Very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 March.
On UT day 12 March, the solar wind speed was steady near 350
km/s till 18/2030 UT, and then increased gradually to 420 km/s.
The solar wind speed is currently near 400 km/s. This mild enhancement
in the solar wind is due to coronal hole effects. The total IMF
(Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -6/+3 nT, and was predominantly
southward between 12/1530 UT and 12/1830. The outlook for the
next three days (13-15 March) is for the solar wind speed to
be mostly near its nominal level. Some minor enhancement in solar
wind speed may occur during this period due to small patchy coronal
holes reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 13 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 13 Mar : A K
Australian Region 6 21231211
Cocos Island 3 21120110
Darwin 5 21221211
Townsville 6 22231211
Learmonth 7 32231211
Alice Springs 5 21231210
Gingin 5 21131211
Canberra 2 11121100
Hobart 7 22141210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 13 Mar :
Macquarie Island 5 12142000
Casey 14 34431321
Mawson 15 34221244
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 13 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 13 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 6 0120 2231
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
14 Mar 7 Quiet
15 Mar 6 Quiet
16 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Quiet conditions are expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal-Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
16 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Generally normal HF conditions expected.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
13 Mar 4
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Southern Australian and New Zealand Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
14 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
16 Mar -10 Near predicted monthly values
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 12 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 12 Mar
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 9.2 p/cc Temp: 31300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list