[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 12 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 12 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 13 10:31:28 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/12 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 12 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 13 MARCH - 15 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 12 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 12 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
13 Mar 14 Mar 15 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 12 March, with
no flares. Currently there is one numbered region on the visible
disc, AR 2758, located near S35W20. Very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 13-15 March.
On UT day 12 March, the solar wind speed was steady near 350
km/s till 18/2030 UT, and then increased gradually to 420 km/s.
The solar wind speed is currently near 400 km/s. This mild enhancement
in the solar wind is due to coronal hole effects. The total IMF
(Bt) ranged between 2 nT and 7 nT. The north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -6/+3 nT, and was predominantly
southward between 12/1530 UT and 12/1830. The outlook for the
next three days (13-15 March) is for the solar wind speed to
be mostly near its nominal level. Some minor enhancement in solar
wind speed may occur during this period due to small patchy coronal
holes reaching geoeffective location on the solar disk.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 12 Mar: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 12 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 11113122
Cocos Island 3 01111121
Darwin 4 01112122
Townsville 6 11113222
Learmonth 5 11113122
Alice Springs 5 10113221
Gingin 6 10113232
Canberra 3 00103020
Hobart 7 01213232
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 12 Mar :
Macquarie Island 7 01203331
Casey 10 23322232
Mawson 19 44332351
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 12 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 12 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 11 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 0
Planetary 0 1000 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
13 Mar 7 Quiet
14 Mar 7 Quiet
15 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 12 March was quiet to unsettled
for the Australian region. The Antarctic sites observed quiet
to active conditions. The observed mildly disturbed conditions
was due to north-south component of the IMF (Bz) turning strongly
southward between 12/1530 UT and 12/1830. This enhanced the energy
coupling between the solar wind and the Earth's magnetic felid
lines. The geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly at quiet
levels for the next three UT days, 13-15 March, with a remote
chance of short-lived unsettled periods.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
14 Mar Normal Normal Normal
15 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 13-15 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
12 Mar -1
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 25% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
13 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
14 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
15 Mar 0 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were mostly near predicted
monthly values to slightly enhanced ones for the Australian on
UT day 12 March. Mild to moderate depressions were over the Niue
islands and Northern Australian region during the local day.
Sporadic-E occurrences were observed over some sites. Similar
levels of ionospheric support are expected for the next three
UT days, 13-15 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 11 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 11 Mar
Speed: 309 km/sec Density: 9.7 p/cc Temp: 12600 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list