[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 11 10:31:45 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 11 MARCH - 13 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Mar 12 Mar 13 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 71/6
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 10 March. Currently
there is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR 2758, located
near the solar meridian (now at S35E05). Very low levels of solar
activity are expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 March.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 10 March, the solar wind speed was mostly
near its nominal level, in the range 320-380 km. The solar wind
speed is currently near 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between
2 nT and 5 nT and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied
in the range -3/+2 nT. The outlook for the next three days (11-13
March) is for the solar wind speed to remain near its nominal
level. Some minor enhancement in solar wind speed may occur during
this period due to a possible connection with the high speed
stream from an extension of the south polar coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 10101201
Cocos Island 1 10110100
Darwin 2 11101101
Townsville 3 21201201
Learmonth 2 10102201
Alice Springs 1 10101101
Gingin 2 10102201
Canberra 1 00101100
Hobart 3 11112201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 01011100
Casey 5 23311100
Mawson 10 52212111
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1220 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Mar 7 Quiet
12 Mar 7 Quiet
13 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 10 March was quiet for the
Australian region. The Antarctic sites observed mostly quiet
conditions, with a short-lived active period. Global geomagnetic
activity is expected to be mostly at quiet levels for the next
three UT days 11-13 March, with some short-lived unsettled periods
possible due to the south polar coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Mar Normal Normal Normal
12 Mar Normal Normal Normal
13 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 11-13 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Mar 2
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
13 Mar 5 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for the Australian
and equatorial region on 10 March. Sporadic-E occurrences were
observed over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support
are expected for the next three UT days, 11-13 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Mar
Speed: 343 km/sec Density: 11.8 p/cc Temp: 35300 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list