[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 09 Mar 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 10 10:31:22 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 10 MARCH - 12 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Mar:  71/6


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             10 Mar             11 Mar             12 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    71/6               71/6               71/6

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 09 March. Currently 
there is one numbered region on the visible disc, AR 2758 (now 
at S35E18). Very low levels of solar activity are expected for 
the next three UT days, 10-12 March. No Earth directed CMEs were 
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 09 March, 
the solar wind speed varied in the range 330-380 km, currently 
near 350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) ranged between 1 nT and 7 nT 
and the north-south component of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range 
-3/+3 nT. The outlook for the next three days (10-12 March) is 
for the solar wind speed to remain near its nominal. Some minor 
enhancement in solar wind speed may occur during this period 
due to a possible connection with the high speed stream from 
an extension of the south polar coronal hole.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 09 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21111211
      Cocos Island         2   20101210
      Darwin               4   21111211
      Townsville           4   21112211
      Learmonth            5   21112221
      Alice Springs        3   11111211
      Gingin               4   11101321
      Canberra             1   10111100
      Hobart               4   11121211    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     2   11111100
      Casey               11   33431221
      Mawson              19   34322245

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4   1220 0121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
10 Mar     7    Quiet
11 Mar     7    Quiet
12 Mar     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 09 March was mostly quiet for 
the Australian region. The Antarctic sites observed quiet to 
active levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be 
mostly at quiet levels for the next three UT days 10-12 March, 
with some short-lived unsettled periods possible due to the south 
polar coronal hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
09 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
10 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
11 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
12 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 10-12 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
09 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -8
Mar      -15
Apr      -16

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
10 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
11 Mar     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
12 Mar     5    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted 
monthly values to moderately enhanced ones for the Australian 
and equatorial region on 09 March. Sporadic-E occurrences were 
observed over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support 
are expected for the next three UT days, 10-12 March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 08 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Mar
Speed: 358 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:    39900 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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