[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 March 20 issued 2331 UT on 07 Mar 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Mar 8 10:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 MARCH 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 08 MARCH - 10 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Mar: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Mar 09 Mar 10 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low for UT day 07 March. There
are currently no sunspots on the visible disc. Very low levels
of solar activity are expected for the next three UT days, 08-10
March. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. On UT day 07 March, the solar wind speed
varied in the range 330-390 km, currently near 330 Km/s. The
total IMF (Bt) ranged from 4 nT to 7 nT and the north-south component
of the IMF (Bz) varied in the range -4/+7 nT. The solar wind
speed may reach moderately enhanced levels on 08 March due to
a possible connection with the high speed stream from an extension
of the south polar coronal hole.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 07 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 11112101
Cocos Island 2 11111100
Darwin 3 11112101
Townsville 3 21112101
Learmonth 4 21112202
Alice Springs 2 10112100
Gingin 2 10112100
Canberra 1 00102000
Hobart 3 11122100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 00233000
Casey 8 33322101
Mawson 6 23322100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 3 1012 2201
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
09 Mar 7 Quiet
10 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic activity for 07 March was mostly quiet for
the Australian and Antarctic regions. Global geomagnetic activity
may increase to unsettled levels, with a chance of isolated active
periods for 08 March if the solar wind becomes enhanced due to
the anticipated coronal hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Mar Normal Normal Normal
10 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three UT days, 08-10 March. Mild degradation may
happen in high-latitude regions on 08 March due to possible increase
in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Mar -3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -8
Mar -15
Apr -16
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
09 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
10 Mar -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near predicted
monthly values to mildly enhanced ones for the Australian and
equatorial region on 07 March. Sporadic-E occurrences were seen
over some sites. Similar levels of ionospheric support are expected
for the next three UT days, 08-10 March.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.90E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: <A1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Mar
Speed: 333 km/sec Density: 8.8 p/cc Temp: 42300 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list