[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 24 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 25 09:31:25 EST 2020 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 25 JUNE - 27 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Jun:  67/0


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Jun             26 Jun             27 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 24 June. There 
are currently no numbered active regions on the visible solar 
disk. Very Low solar activity is expected for the next three 
UT days, 25-27 June. GONG Halpha imagery showed an active fragmented 
filament in the NW quadrant, no clear CME signature was detected 
in the available coronagraph imagery. The weak CME observed starting 
22/1639UT was further analysed. The CME has been difficult to 
model, this limited our ability to determine the impacts with 
high confidence. During UT day 24 June, the solar wind speed 
remained at nominal levels, under 340 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) 
varied between 2-6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) 
varied mostly between +/- 4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected 
to remain mostly near its background levels today, 25 June, then 
may become slightly enhanced from 26 June due to weak coronal 
hole.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11110000
      Cocos Island         1   10110000
      Darwin               1   11110001
      Townsville           1   11110001
      Learmonth            1   10110000
      Alice Springs        0   10100000
      Gingin               1   10100001
      Canberra             0   01100000
      Hobart               1   01110000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   01020000
      Casey                1   11110001
      Mawson               8   42210222

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              4   1001 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Jun     5    Quiet
26 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled
27 Jun    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: On UT day 23 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region and mainly quiet in the Antarctic region, 
with one isolated active period recorded on one Antarctic station. 
Global geomagnetic activity is expected to be at quiet today,25 
June. Conditions may increase to unsettled levels on 26-27 June 
due to minor coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next 
three UT days, 25-27 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Jun    -5

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
26 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values
27 Jun    -5    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to slightly 
enhanced on UT day 24 June. Sporadic E and spread F were observed 
at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region 
are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values for the 
next three UT days, 25-27 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   9.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Jun
Speed: 295 km/sec  Density:    7.8 p/cc  Temp:    14800 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list