[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 17 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 18 09:31:27 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 18 JUNE - 20 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Jun:  69/3


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             18 Jun             19 Jun             20 Jun
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was Very Low on UT day 17 June. Very 
Low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 18-20 
June. There are currently no numbered active regions on the solar 
disk. No returning regions are expected. No Earthward directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. During 
the last 24 hours, the solar wind speed decreased from around 
360 km/s to 270 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 
1-6 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was -6/+3 
nT. Solar wind conditions may have moderate enhancements on UT 
day 18 June due to coronal hole effects, returning to background 
levels on UT days 19-20 June.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 17 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21111100
      Cocos Island         2   21111100
      Darwin               3   21111101
      Townsville           2   21111100
      Learmonth            3   21112100
      Alice Springs        1   20001000
      Gingin               1   20001000
      Canberra             1   20001000
      Hobart               2   11112100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00002000
      Casey                3   21112100
      Mawson               3   11112200

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              4   1111 1122     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
18 Jun     7    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Jun     5    Quiet
20 Jun     5    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 17 June, geomagnetic conditions were Quiet 
in the Australian and Antarctic regions. Conditions may increase 
to Quiet to Unsettled levels on UT day 18 June due to minor coronal 
hole effects, returning to Quiet conditions on UT days 19-20 
June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal
20 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for 
the next three UT days, 18-20 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
17 Jun    -9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
18 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values
20 Jun   -10    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced 
levels on UT day 17 June. Sporadic E was observed over some Australian 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly 
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next 
three UT days, 18-20 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 16 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: <A1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Jun
Speed: 336 km/sec  Density:    1.7 p/cc  Temp:    36300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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