[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 14 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jun 15 09:31:25 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 70/5
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 70/5 68/2 68/2
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 14 June. Very
low solar activity is expected for the next three days, 15 to
17 June. Active region 2765 (now at S23W74) appears stable and
will soon rotate to the farside of the sun. No returning regions
expected. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph images. During the last 24 hours, the solar wind
speed was at its nominal level, mostly steady near 300 km/s.
The total IMF (Bt) varied in the range 3-5 nT and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was -3/+3 nT. Solar wind conditions
are expected to be near its nominal levels for 15-17 June, with
some mild enhancements possible.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 0 00000000
Cocos Island 0 00010000
Darwin 0 00100001
Townsville 1 01000011
Learmonth 0 00100000
Alice Springs 0 01000000
Gingin 0 00000000
Canberra 0 00000000
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 1 01100110
Mawson 2 01000022
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 2 0000 1211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 5 Quiet
16 Jun 5 Quiet
17 Jun 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 14 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet
in the Australian and Antarctica regions. Mostly quiet global
geomagnetic conditions are expected for 15-17 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Normal Normal Normal
16 Jun Normal Normal Normal
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF conditions are expected for
the next three UT days, 15 to 17 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 0
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
16 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun -5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to mildly enhanced
levels on UT day 14 June. Sporadic E were observed over most
Australian sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected
to be mostly near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels
for the next three UT days, 15 to 17 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A1.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 324 km/sec Density: 2.8 p/cc Temp: 8630 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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