[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 10 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 10 Jun 2020
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 11 09:31:27 EST 2020
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/10 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 10 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 11 JUNE - 13 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 10 Jun: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 10 Jun: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
11 Jun 12 Jun 13 Jun
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 72/8 70/5 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 10 June with background
X-ray flux levels subsiding. Very low solar activity is expected
for the next three days, 11 to 13 June. AR 2765(S23W20) has decayed
in area and now has one spot. No returning regions expected.
No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. The solar wind speed range was 442 to 504 km/s peaking
at 1256 UT, wind speed is currently around 470 km/s. The total
IMF (Bt) reached 7 nT and the north-south IMF component, Bz,
range was -7 to 4 nT. Solar wind conditions are expected to be
near nominal levels 11 to 13 June.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 10 Jun: Quiet
Estimated Indices 10 Jun : A K
Australian Region 3 12220110
Cocos Island 2 12120100
Darwin 4 12220111
Townsville 4 22220111
Learmonth 4 22220110
Alice Springs 3 12220000
Gingin 4 13220110
Canberra 3 12220110
Hobart 5 22221111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 10 Jun :
Macquarie Island 5 11241000
Casey 7 33231110
Mawson 16 24442124
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 10 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 17 (Quiet)
Canberra 19 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 10 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 09 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 4 1000 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
11 Jun 7 Quiet
12 Jun 7 Quiet
13 Jun 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 10 June. The Antarctic region observed quiet
to active conditions. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 11
to 13 June.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Jun Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
11 Jun Normal Normal Normal
12 Jun Normal Normal Normal
13 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected for the next
three UT days, 11 to 13 June.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
10 Jun 6
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 50% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 40% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 1
Jun -12
Jul -13
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
11 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
12 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
13 Jun 0 Near predicted monthly values to 20% enhanced
COMMENT: MUFs were near predicted monthly values to enhanced
on 10 June. Sporadic E was observed at Norfolk Is. and Darwin
afternoon and early evening. Night spread F observed at most
stations. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to be mostly
near predicted monthly values for the next three days, 11 to
13 June.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 09 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A2.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 09 Jun
Speed: 412 km/sec Density: 5.3 p/cc Temp: 117000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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