[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 03 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Jun 4 09:31:18 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 04 JUNE - 06 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Jun:  70/5


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             04 Jun             05 Jun             06 Jun
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    70/5               70/5               70/5

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 03 June. There 
are two numbered active regions on the visible disc, AR 2764 
and AR 2765. Currently AR 2764 has no sunspots. No Earthward 
directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. 
Very low levels of solar activity with a chance of isolated C-class 
flares are expected for the next three UT days, 04-06 June. During 
UT day 03 June, the solar wind speed varied in the range 310-360 
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 1 nT and 5 nT, and the 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied mostly in the range -4/+3 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to stay mostly near its 
background level during UT days 04-06 June, with possible moderate 
enhancements.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 03 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   01002000
      Cocos Island         0   00000000
      Darwin               1   11001001
      Townsville           1   01002001
      Learmonth            0   00002000
      Alice Springs        1   010-----
      Gingin               1   01002010
      Canberra             0   00002000
      Hobart               1   01012000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     1   00012000
      Casey                3   12111110
      Mawson               9   33111024

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2321 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
04 Jun     7    Quiet
05 Jun     7    Quiet
06 Jun     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 03 June. The Antarctic region observed mostly 
quiet to unsettled levels. Global geomagnetic activity is expected 
to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled periods 
for UT days 04-06 June.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
03 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
04 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
05 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
06 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: During UT day 03 June, MUFs were mostly near predicted 
monthly values with mild enhancements in the Southern Hemisphere 
and varied between the predicted monthly values and moderately 
depressed levels in the Northern Hemisphere. For the next three 
UT days, 04-06 June, similar HF propagation conditions are expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
03 Jun     0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
04 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
05 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values
06 Jun     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: In the Australian region on UT day 03 June MUFs were 
mostly near predicted monthly values during local day and mildly 
enhanced during local night. Sporadic E was observed over some 
sites. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to stay mostly 
at normal levels for the next three UT days, 04-06 June. Mild 
enhancements are possible during 04 June.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 02 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.3E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Jun
Speed: 347 km/sec  Density:    8.6 p/cc  Temp:    48700 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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