[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 June 20 issued 2331 UT on 30 Jun 2020

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jul 1 09:31:28 EST 2020


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JUNE 2020 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 01 JULY - 03 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jun:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jun:  68/2


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Jul             02 Jul             03 Jul
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    68/2               68/2               68/2

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 30 June. There 
are currently no numbered regions on the visible solar disc. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days, 
01 to 03 July. No Earthward directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph images. During UT day 30 June, the solar 
wind speed varied mostly between 325 km/s and 350 km/s, but a 
weak blow (around 30/0115 UT)from a CME briefly raised the solar 
wind speed up to 393 km/s and also caused brief rises in the 
solar wind particle density to 10 ppcc and the total IMF (Bt) 
to 6 nT and. The effect of the CME turned the north-south IMF 
component (Bz) southwards up to -5 nT. During most parts of the 
UT day 30 June, Bt stayed between 2 and 4 nT, Bz in the range 
+3/-3 nT and the solar wind particle density between 3 and 9 
ppcc. During the next three UT days, 01 to 03 July, the solar 
wind speed is expected to vary between its background levels 
and slightly enhanced values due to possible minor coronal hole 
effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jun: Quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   21100001
      Cocos Island         2   21100001
      Darwin               2   21100001
      Townsville           3   22210101
      Learmonth            3   22200001
      Alice Springs        2   21100001
      Gingin               2   22100000
      Canberra             1   11100000
      Hobart               1   11100100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jun :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   23200101
      Mawson              10   13311005

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              3   1100 0111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
02 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
03 Jul     6    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible

COMMENT: On UT day 30 June, geomagnetic conditions were quiet 
in the Australian region. Mostly quiet conditions with isolated 
unsettled periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global 
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly quiet for the next 
three UT days, 01 to 03 July, with small possibility of isolated 
unsettled periods due to week coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
02 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal
03 Jul      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: MUFs were near monthly predicted to moderately enhanced 
levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements were observed mostly 
during local night. Sporadic E and spread F were observed at 
times over some sites. MUFs are expected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
01 to 03 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Jun    -0

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      1
Jun      -12
Jul      -13

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
02 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values
03 Jul     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region were near monthly predicted 
to moderately enhanced levels on UT day 30 June. The enhancements 
were observed mostly during local night. Sporadic E and spread 
F were observed at times over some Australian sites. MUFs in 
the Australian region are expected to be mostly near monthly 
predicted to mildly enhanced levels for the next three UT days, 
01 to 03 July.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.1E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A1.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jun
Speed: 327 km/sec  Density:    4.1 p/cc  Temp:    29600 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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